Water vulnerability and the triggering effects on socio-natural hazards: an assessment in the Totare River basin in the department of Tolima

Abstract

This article presents a methodological proposal to assess the water vulnerability generated by social, economic and climatic factors, and correlate the transformations with socio-natural threat events triggered directly and indirectly by water dynamics, which in turn are analyzed in aspects of geographic simultaneity, coexistence and concatenation between phenomena. The methodology is applied in a study area demarcated by the extension of the Totare river basin in the department of Tolima. The research focused on qualitative methods, based on inductive and systemic analysis, from the geomatics sciences approach, seeking from the parts or factors examined from the physical-natural components, to find the holistic fragility of The basin on the hydric ecosystems and also its threatening character for the anthropogenic processes that take place there. The results identify patterns and trends of change in the matrix of the natural landscape, variations in temperature parameters and modifications, the current state of the basin compared to water supply and demand, which are INVESTIGACIONES EN INGENIERÍA CIVIL - Artículo de investigación 51 ESING Página then synthesized through a heuristic model that determines the level of water vulnerability of the basin. The main conclusions found were slight variations in precipitation and temperature, a high transformation of the natural landscape due to deforestation, strong pressures in the lower basin due to water resources, and correlation with threat events due to mass movements and forest fires.